ANZ Head of Economics Adam Boyton has predicted a “soft landing” for the global and Australian economies, with GDP growth picking up and inflation stabilising near target levels.
ANZ Head of Economics Adam Boyton.
Presenting his Economic Outlook at the 2024 ANZ & CCIWA Economic Breakfast this morning, he highlighted that China’s slower growth would still result in significant economic expansion.
Meanwhile, interest rates were expected to converge at around 3.5-3.6% globally, reflecting the successful management of inflation and unemployment.
In Australia, Boyton expected interest rates would ease, with an official cash rate cut tipped for February 2025.
He said despite current consumer weakness, household spending was expected to recover, while housing markets, particularly in Australia’s smaller cities such as Perth, would continue to experience strong growth.
Business investment remains robust
Boyton said business investment remained robust, driven by major projects and public sector spending.
He predicted the “skills of the future” included job growth in the areas of care, cognitive, communication, and computing.
While AI may change job roles, he said, the workforce is expected to be in high demand due to demographic shifts and increased consumption.
“As AI becomes more widespread, the goods and services that it unlocks will be increasingly consumed,” he said.
“The way we do our jobs will change as AI comes in. But I think if you jump back over the past 100 years, every technological advance that people have said is going to destroy the need for humans, humans very good at adapting.”
Journey to a world record
In his keynote address, Paralympian Brant Garvey shared his journey from being born an above-knee amputee to setting a world record in an ironman triathlon.
Inspired by his sister’s cancer battles when he was younger, Garvey challenged his limiting beliefs and took up running at age 28.
Paralympian Brant Garvey.
Initially struggling with the basics, he improved daily and completed a 12-kilometre charity run before investing in advanced prosthetics, including a $20,000 blade leg.
In 2013, he completed an ironman triathlon in 11 hours, 49 minutes, and 20 seconds, becoming the first Australian above-knee amputee to do so and breaking a world record that he still holds today.
Garvey emphasised the importance of challenging pre-determined beliefs and “just starting”. Embrace failure and eliminate excuses, he said.
“I firmly believe that resilience can be a skill that you practice proactively, so the next time life puts you on your butt, you have a toolkit based on previous experience and a mental skill that you can then navigate that challenge better,” he said.
“You should always be looking to identify that one excuse that’s holding you back and work to stop making that one excuse.”
The morning was rounded off with a Q&A, facilitated by ANZ State Manager SME Banking Adrianne Oliveri.
The discussion covered accessibility in workspaces, China’s economic growth challenges, as well as advice for marathon training.
The panel also debated the impact of work-from-home culture on productivity, with concerns raised about losing informal learning opportunities though it resulted in increased productivity for some.
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