New data released last week confirmed Western Australia’s population growth has continued to ease, rising 3.1% over the year to March.
This is down from the 3.4% peak recorded in September 2023 but remains extremely robust, with WA’s population growth continuing to significantly outpace the rest of the nation – Australia’s total population grew a slower 2.3% over the same period.
The population increase continues to be predominantly driven by the ongoing influx of overseas migrants, with net overseas migration accounting for almost 17,000 people in the increased headcount.
Given the significant lag in this data, CCIWA believes population growth has eased further since March but remained at strong levels.
WA’s labour market remains the tightest nationally
WA’s unemployment rate edged up 0.2 percentage points to 3.9% in August. Despite this small increase, WA still boasts the lowest unemployment rate of any state and territory in Australia. Nationally, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%.
With the size of the labour force remaining unchanged, this increase was driven by an increase in the number of people unemployed, which rose 3,400 over the month.
At the same time, the number of people underemployed (those who want to work more hours) also rose slightly over the month but still remains low relative to the past decade.
Combined, it appears the labour market has continued to gradually loosen, although it is still tight relative to history.
RBA holds fire on rate cut
In a widely anticipated decision, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold interest rates at its September meeting, leaving the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%.
While acknowledging inflation was coming down, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock highlighted the Board’s desire to see it sustainably return to the target range, rather than just temporarily.
This is especially given the introduction of electricity rebates nationally that will distort the headline inflation figure.
In a slight change of language, Governor Bullock also indicated the Board did not explicitly consider a rate hike versus remaining on hold. Rather, it considered what would need to change to shift away from being on hold.
Given this, CCIWA maintains its view that the RBA will remain on hold until February 2025.
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