Global trade is moving into a more volatile and fragmented phase, driven by rising geopolitical tension, renewed protectionism and intensifying competition between major economies.
For Western Australia – one of the country’s most trade-exposed jurisdictions – these global pressures are no longer distant risks. They are now influencing operating costs, business confidence and long-term investment decisions.
CCIWA’s newly-released flagship Business Strategy 2026 report finds that while global growth continues, the rules and rhythms of trade are changing.
For WA businesses, understanding how these shifts affect pricing, market access and supply chains is becoming an essential part of strategic planning.
Globalisation gives way to fragmentation
After decades of expanding globalisation, geopolitics is now reshaping the way trade works. Tariffs, strategic subsidies and industrial policy are playing a larger role, and global supply chains are increasingly viewed through a national security lens.
For exporters and importers, the result is greater uncertainty and far fewer assumptions about frictionless trade.
CCIWA Head of International Trade Services Michael Carter says businesses can no longer rely on stability as a given.
“We’re hearing from businesses that trade hasn’t slowed, but it has become more complex,” he says.
“More government intervention – whether through tariffs, export controls or local requirements – means businesses need to factor compliance and policy risk into their export decisions much earlier.”
Shipping disruptions, currency volatility and rising compliance costs are increasingly part of the operating environment, particularly for trade-exposed sectors such as resources, agriculture and manufacturing.
How WA businesses should assess key export markets
Rather than moving in lockstep, the world’s major economies are now following increasingly different trajectories – a trend unpacked in Business Strategy 2026.
China remains WA’s largest trading partner, but its economy is transitioning away from the investment-led growth that has historically driven demand for bulk commodities.
Meanwhile, the United States and Europe are grappling with political uncertainty, sticky inflation and a renewed focus on domestic industry.
Also, faster-growing markets across India, Southeast Asia and the Middle East are emerging as important sources of opportunity, underpinned by population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding middle classes.
Carter says this divergence is forcing businesses to rethink where future growth will come from.
“We’re seeing businesses reassess markets that were once considered ‘set and forget’,” he says.
“They are using a derisk and diversify approach in the way they pursue international engagement.
“Growth is becoming more uneven, so it’s important businesses regularly review where demand is coming from and how policy settings could affect access or competitiveness.”
Key risks and opportunities for WA
The changing trade landscape brings risks and opportunities for WA businesses.
On the risk side, commodity price volatility, supply chain disruption and softer demand in traditional markets could weigh on export earnings and investment decisions.
Heightened geopolitical risk also has the potential to dampen global confidence and delay major projects.
However, Business Strategy 2026 highlights WA’s strong competitive position. The State’s world-leading resources sector, proximity to Asia, reliable energy supply and growing role in emerging industries such as defence, critical minerals and clean energy all position WA as a trusted trading partner.
Carter says in an uncertain global environment, buyers are placing greater value on reliability.
“WA businesses benefit from operating in a stable jurisdiction with strong governance, and that can be a genuine point of differentiation when supply chains are under pressure,” he says.
Strategy matters more than ever
The report emphasises that global uncertainty is no longer a short-term disruption, but a structural feature of the trade environment.
For business leaders, building flexibility into growth plans, stress-testing assumptions and staying alert to global developments are key.
“Businesses that are planning for volatility tend to be more resilient when conditions shift,” Carter says.
“Keeping an eye on global trends and stress-testing assumptions can help businesses make clearer decisions around pricing, investment and market expansion.”
CCIWA’s Business Strategy 2026 report provides a detailed analysis of the global trade environment and what it means for Western Australian businesses as they plan for the year ahead.
Business Strategy 2026 is exclusively available to CCIWA Advantage and Corporate Members. For more, see CCIWA’s Economic Insight page.
